More on Futures Wheels....

A futures wheel is used to examine the possible consequences of a particular trend, event or action, and to identify the cause and effect relationships of these consequences. The idea, action, trend, or event to be examined is placed in the centre of the diagram and lines are drawn outward, connecting this central idea with a number of possible results, which appear to be direct or first-order consequences. From each of these first-order consequences, double lines are drawn outward connecting secondary associations, or second-order consequences. The process is then extended by using triple lines to join each second-order consequence to a number of third-order consequences. The process is continued to generate fourth, fifth and sixth order consequences and beyond.

The diagrammatic representation of the above and some other interesting diagrams can be viewed through the following link :

http://www.sasked.gov.sk.ca/docs/history10/activity/unit1/u1act9tis.html

Backcasting

The concept of “backcasting” is central to a strategic approach for sustainable development. It is a way of planning in which a successful outcome is imagined in the future, followed by the question: “what do we need to do today to reach that successful outcome.” This is more effective than relying too much on forecasting, which tends to have the effect of presenting a more limited range of options, hence stifling creativity, and more important, it projects the problems of today into the future.

In the context of sustainability, we can imagine an infinite number of scenarios for a sustainable society – and ‘backcasting from scenarios’ can be thought of as a jigsaw puzzle, in which we have a shared picture of where we want to go, and we put the pieces together to get there. However, getting large groups of people to agree on a desired future scenario is often all but impossible. Further, scenarios that are too specific may limit innovation, and distract our minds from the innovative, creative solutions necessary for sustainable development.

So strategic sustainable development relies on ‘backcasting from principles for sustainability’ – which are based in science, and represent something we can all agree on: if these principles are violated, at some point our global society will collapse. To achieve a sustainable society, we know we have to not violate those principles – we don’t know exactly what that society will look like, but we can define success on a principle level. In that way, backcasting from principles is more like chess – we don’t know exactly what success will look like, but we know the principles of checkmate – and we go about playing the game in a strategic ways, always keeping that vision of future success in mind.

Strengths:

(1) Backcasts are not intended to reveal what the future will likely be, but to indicate the relative feasibility and implications of different policy goals.
(2) Suggests the implications of likely futures, chosen not on the basis of their likelihood but on the basis of other criteria defined externally to the analysis (e.g. criteria of social or environmental desirability).
(3) Determines the freedom of action, in a policy sense, with respect to possible futures.

Weaknesses:

(1) No estimate of likelihood is possible.
(2) Does not seek to discover the underlying structural features of the world that would cause the future to come about.

References :

http://strategiesforsustainability.blogspot.com/2006/08/backcasting_26.html

http://www.dse.vic.gov.au/DSE/wcmn203.nsf/LinkView/6B2879E72156CA84CA2570340024AD8AF0262F6E20F33AE3CA2570910006165A

Environmental Scanning

Environmental scanning is a qualitative process of capturing shocks, surprises, trends and drivers that influence and shape tourism in a systematic manner that makes sense.

Organizations scan the environment in order to understand the external forces of change so that they may develop effective responses which secure or improve their position in the future. They scan in order to avoid surprises, identify threats and opportunities, gain competitive advantage, and improve long-term and short-term planning. To the extent that an organization's ability to adapt to its outside environment is dependent on knowing and interpreting the external changes that are taking place, environmental scanning constitutes a primary mode of organizational learning. Environmental scanning includes both looking at information (viewing) and looking for information (searching). It could range from a casual conversation at the lunch table or a chance observation of an angry customer, to a formal market research programme or a scenario planning exercise.

We all do informal environmental scanning. However, continuous scanning is required if decisionmakers are to understand, anticipate, and respond to the threats and opportunities posed by changes in the external environment.

To gain and indepth knowledge into the subject, I think the following links would be of great help:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Environmental_scanning

http://horizon.unc.edu/courses/papers/enviroscan/

http://informationr.net/ir/7-1/paper112.html

Trend Extrapolation

Trend extrapolation is the simplest form of foresighting (Millet, 1991). This method is based on an assumption that patterns in the past will continue into the future. To perform this method, information is collected about a variable over time, and then extrapolated to some point in the future. This analysis can be either qualitative or quantitative. In the most simple form, trend extrapolation can be based on linear or other straightforward projections. Other foresighting methods that are more elegant variations of simple trend extrapolation (and that can be considered a subset of modeling) include system dynamics, s-curves, regression analysis, and substitution analysis. All of these methods hold a common assumption that the future will follow some pattern based on the past.

This method has two major weaknesses. First, it is often a fallacy to assume that the future will follow the pattern of the past. While people often make such assumptions due to a lack of better information, any picture of the future that is developed on this basis can be inaccurate. The second weakness of this method is that it typically provides information on only a single variable. Especially in current world conditions, it is rare for any variable to act independently. More often, the influence of outside forces can dramatically alter the future of any one event or condition.

Reference:
http://www.blogger.com/www.seattle.battelle.org/Services/ES/foresite/ch02.htm